Electric Bikes in China: Impact on the Environment and Prospects for Future Growth

Abstract:

Electric bikes (e-bikes) have entered the transportation market in China and are beginning to expand into other Asian countries. This expansion has prompted analysis of the environmental performance of this mode relative to several alternative modes. Moreover the future market potential of e-bikes in China is analyzed as well as potential for battery technology to improve and be cost competitive with lead acid batteries. From a market perspective, there are several forces contributing to the rise in this mode, namely: the restriction of motorcycles in many cities, the bicycle culture and infrastructure of China, the rising cost of fuel, improving technologies, and deteriorating bus service due to congestion and crowding. Some factors are inhibiting e-bikes also, including: strong competition from motorcycles, some bans on e-bikes because of safety, congestion, and environmental perceptions, and government investments in public transportation. Based on analysis power plant emission factors and partial life cycle emissions during production and use of e-bikes, this paper shows that e-bikes outperform most other motorized modes on many metric providing improvements to local air quality as well as greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, e-bikes outperform bus transit on many environmental metrics. One outstanding issue is the use of lead-acid batteries, contributing to high levels of industrial lead pollution during production and recycling processes. Factors influencing the adoption of alternative battery technology, including Li-ion, are on considered. The costs of more eco-efficient batteries are still prohibitive, despite rising lead prices. Near term adoption of alternative battery technology will require subsidy or regulation in order for the e-bike market to adopt them en masse.