Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutant Emission in Pakistan using Gains-Asia Model

ABSTRACT

There is now a consensus among the scientific community that global climate is changing the planet and the adverse effects have a causal link that started with the industrial revolution in the mid 19th Century. As a result of the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, many changes are occurring within the natural ecosystem. Some countries of the world will be called upon to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other countries will be forced to deal with the consequences of climate change adaptation. Pakistan will need to adapt to climate changes, with reduced water availability because the Indus River is the primary freshwater artery for the entire country and the headwaters of the Indus are dependent on Himalayan glacial melt. Greenhouse gas emission reductions are an important development goal for countries with rapidly emerging economies such as China, India and Pakistan. The premier global model for assessing co-benefits is the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Prior to this project there was no emission data base available for a systematic analysis of economic impacts of air pollution and GHGs in Pakistan and throughout Asia. In order to fill this gap IIASA is developing GAINS-Asia model with the help of counter part organizations in Asia. This research focuses specifically on populating the GAINS-Asia model data base with Pakistan’s emission data and the economic impacts of increased emissions with an aim to develop a framework for identifying suitable strategies to mitigate air pollution and GHG emissions. Using GAINS-Asia we have calculated the GHG’s and air pollutants emissions in Pakistan from 1990-2005 and simulated for future years upto 2030 and also studied the mitigation option to control these emissions.