Future Climate Change Temperature Rise and its Impact on Heat Related Mortality

Abstract:

One increasingly clear result of fossil fuel combustion and other sources of greenhouse gas emissions is global warming. In recent years, heat waves have been linked to higher than normal mortality rates during and immediately following temperature spikes. Using heat mortality relative risk values reported in US and European studies, this study makes use of summer meteorological data for the baseline years 2000-2002 and estimates for future years 2050-2052 to predict a change in heat-related deaths. Variability in weather patterns can result in localized lower temperatures in the short term. Over longer time periods, average temperatures and heat related mortality are predicted to increase. The implications for Asia are clear. As mean global temperatures rise, the number and duration of high temperature events should also increase, leading to impacts with public health implications. Preventive measures exist and infrastructural modifications can be made if sufficient resources are allocated.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, Asia, health risk, heat mortality