Co₂ Emissions from Passenger Transport in India: 1950-51 to 2020-21

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to forecast the level of traffic mobility and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions from the land-based passenger transportation in India up to the year 2020-21. There are typically two ways to estimate future traffic mobility. The first approach is generally based on independent projections of traffic volume per mode of transport over time. Typically, each modal projection is built on a different method, and the total traffic volume becomes simply an aggregate of the independent estimates for the various modes. The second approach is based on projection of motorized mobility in a first step, and the related modal split is computed afterwards. The second approach is a better one for developing long-term scenarios since it takes into account the competition between modes. This paper follows the second approach to allow formulation of aggregate and long-term scenarios. This aggregate approach will be useful when we analyze the transport systems’ impact on the environment. The forecasting model used in this paper is mainly built on two explanatory variables: gross domestic product and population. Annual data from 1950-51 to 2000-01 are used to estimate the future traffic volume in India. It is found that the motorized traffic volume in India will very nearly touch the mark of 13000 billion passenger-km in 2020-21, out of which 91.7% will be provided by the roads and the rest by railways. Based on the projected values of aggregate traffic volume and modal split, the paper estimates the level and growth of CO2 emission from passenger transport sector in India. If there is no reduction in modal CO2 intensities, CO2 emission is projected to increase from 19.80 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 2000-01 to 93.25 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 2020-21. Even when we assume a reduction of 1% per year in CO2 intensity of all modes of transport, CO2 emission is projected to increase at the rate of 7% per year between 2000-01 and 2020-21.

Keywords: passenger transport, India, CO2 emission