Urban Transport Scenarios in South Asia Impact of Improving Public Transport Patronage on Energy and Environment

Abstract:

Motor vehicle ownership and utilization are growing rapidly in Asia, owing to rapid urbanization and growing urban incomes. This is resulting in increasing traffic congestion, fuel use, CO2 emissions, and deteriorating air quality. A common analytical framework supported by indicators is used to explore scenarios of vehicle, energy use and emissions in three South Asian cities: Bangalore, Colombo and Dhaka. Scenarios are built by separately analyzing transportation Activity (in tonne- or passenger-kilometers), modal Structure (i.e., share of tonne- or passenger-kilometers occurring on each mode), the modal energy Intensity (in energy burned per tonne- or passenger-km), and the emission Factors. Such a framework also allows analysts to evaluate the interaction of policies and components and develop low carbon pathways for the transport sector.
Although the types of data available across cities vary widely and there are deficiencies and inconsistencies in the available data, the analysis suggests that motor vehicle roughly doubles in each city in 2020 in the “business-as-usual” scenario, largely due to expected income increases; fuel use and CO2 emissions triple; and pollution loading rise exponentially. An alternative scenario of slower vehicle and energy growth is explored, premised on substitution of personal vehicles with buses and reduction in traffic congestion. Consequently, fuel use and CO2 emissions increase only double in Bangalore and Dhaka whereas in Colombo the increase is not significantly lower than the “business-as-usual” scenario. The likely cumulative carbon mitigation potential over fifteen-year period is 13% in Bangalore, 9% Dhaka and 2% in Colombo. The drop in pollution loading is different in each city.