Scenarios of Future Motorization in India

Abstract:

This study was commissioned by the Japan International Transport Institute to investigate future paths for land passenger transport in India. Because data on mobility, vehicle use, and fuel use in India are very uncertain, we first surveyed a number of data sources to build a bottom up model of vehicles, vehicle and passenger activity, fuel use, local emissions and CO2 emissions. In spite of the uncertainties, scenarios could be created to illustrate different mobility and fuel-use futures for 2030. If the scenarios are constructed carefully, the differences illustrated will be not only meaningful but extremely illustrative of outcomes. They may also suggest pathways, particularly pathways that lead to “lower than otherwise” carbon emissions. A set of four scenarios was been developed to show the different outcomes for India, one of which includes reliance on mini cars like the Nano, but as a result of strong urban transport policies that disfavor larger vehicles. With rapid motorization growth in India and the long lead times required to change transport systems, land uses, and vehicles, strategies must be adopted now if outcomes in 2030 are to be affected in ways to reduce congestion and emissions. We conclude that modal mix and overall mobility, which are shaped by land uses, incomes, and transport policies, may have far more sway over future fuel use and emissions than simply considerations of vehicle efficiencies. Emission and fuel use strategies that do not work in synch with transport strategies will lead to some savings of fuel, but overall levels will be much higher because of the wave of individual mobility taking off in India.