National Level Co-Control Study of the 11th Five-Year and Long-term Plan Targets for Energy Intensity and Sulfur Dioxide

Abstract:

A co-benefits approach is increasingly recognized as a practical starting point for addressing climate change issues, and as an effective tool to encourage all countries to be more proactive in GHG emissions control. Better GHG mitigation policies not only prevent climate change globally, but also explicitly achieve co-benefits in terms of energy savings, local emissions reductions, economic growth and health improvements. Meanwhile, improving energy efficiency can also have co-benefits in GHG emission reduction. Therefore, moving towards a low carbon economy in China will be a win-win solution to curb GHG emission and realize numerous other benefits for the country. To this end, a study was conducted by Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), National Development Reform Commission, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory, US Environmental Protection Agency, to determine three scenarios of policy and technology solutions for reducing both local and global emissions in high GHG emitting sectors in China, each scenario meeting a separate policy objective: 1. Most cost-effective, 2. Greatest impact on CO2 emissions, and 3. Greatest impact on both CO2 and SO2 emissions. The LBNL China End-use Energy model was used for this effort. These three scenarios were then analyzed using the CASS CGE model and other macro-econometric models to understand the impact of these scenarios on specific economic drivers and sustainable development indicators. This paper analyzes the impacts of GHG emissions control on key selected sectors of economy and try to explore the most effective GHG mitigation policies and measures to realize the aim of a low carbon economy, and maximize co-benefits while still maintaining strong economic growth.