ESTIMATIONS OF THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF URBAN AIR POLLUTION IN WORLD CITIES IN 2000 AND 2030

Abstract:

Within the framework of the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and ozone and their attributable effect on human health have been estimated for the largest 3000 cities in the world in 2000 and 2030. In 2000 is 70-90% of the urban population in the Middle East and in most of Asia exposed to PM10 concentrations well above the highest WHO interim target of 70 μg/m3. In the OECD Pacific region 80% of the urban population lives in a city where the PM10 levels are below the WHO Air Quility Guideline of 20 μg/m3. It is estimated that exposure to PM causes worldwide approximately 960 000 premature deaths. A further deteriorating of the urban air quality is expected in 2030; in seven of the thirteen world regions concentrations increases with 5-25%. In urban areas a three-fold increase in premature deaths (to a total of about 3 million) attributable to particulate air pollution is estimated worldwide between 2000 and 2030; this increase will be especially outside the OECD-regions. In addition to the increase in concentrations, a further urbanization and the aging of the population contribute to the increased health impacts. The potential impact of several additional policy measures will be discussed.

The health impacts of ozone exposure less severe; for 2000 a total of approximately 40 000 premature deaths is estimated. In 2030 increased concentrations have been modelled especially for the northern hemisphere in the mid latitudes (20-50N). Worldwide a 25% increase in the relevant ozone concentrations is expected in 2030. This increase varies between regions from less than 5% to more than 55. A strong increase in health impact is expected: approximately 2.5 million premature deaths attributed to ozone exposure.