Building a GHG Emissions Transportation Bottom-up Model and its Applicability for Asia Economies

Abstract:

To understand current trends of vehicle fuel consumption, the relative contributions to it of vehicle use and technological fuel efficiency, and to forecast future trends and/or assess potential impact of economic instruments policies or fuel consumption regulation, a “national new vehicles choice model”, complemented with a “stock turnover” model of vehicle activity and use to forecast GHG emissions, could be a useful tool. In fact, in Canada as in some other countries, there are several accounting models or partial models of the vehicle fleet in use by different agencies of the national government, which differ substantially in their representation of the past and present. Transport Canada (Canadian ministry of transportation) has recently developed a new model to identify/assess cost-effective economic instruments aimed at stimulating the purchase of new energy-efficient light duty vehicles and is currently adapting the model for its future impact analyses of potential fuel consumption regulations. The presentation will set the context for building a bottom-up model, review model development and data analytical challenges with regards light duty vehicles, and finally, provide insight of applicability of Transport Canada’s experience to other countries.